Tuli Tuipulotu wins ROY, Joshua Kelley leads Chargers in rushing: NFL predictions at midseason

Publish date: 2024-06-22

With back-to-back wins, including Monday night’s drubbing of the New York Jets, the Los Angeles Chargers are firmly back in the AFC playoff picture at 4-4.

Their season once again stands at a crossroads. The Chargers face the 6-2 Detroit Lions at home Sunday on a short week. After a road game against the Green Bay Packers, the Chargers return home to take on the 7-2 Baltimore Ravens, who are looking like the best team in football.

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These two big tests will reveal the trajectory of this season for coach Brandon Staley’s team.

Before then, though, let’s get some prognostications on the record. What will change for the Chargers? What will stay the same? And who will tell the story of the final nine games of 2023?

Here are five predictions as the Chargers approach the midway point.

1. Tuipulotu will be named Defensive Rookie of the Year

Tuli Tuipulotu, the Chargers’ second-round pick in April, had two more sacks in Monday night’s win over the Jets. That brings his season total to four. Tuipulotu has already proved himself as a slam-dunk pick for Staley and general manager Tom Telesco. He is impacting games as a pass rusher and run defender. By the end of the season, Tuipulotu has a strong chance of distancing himself as the best defensive player in his class.

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His four sacks are tied for second among rookies with the Philadelphia Eagles’ Jalen Carter, trailing the Los Angeles Rams’ Byron Young. He is creating pressure on 14.1 percent of opponent dropbacks, according to TruMedia. Only Carter has a higher rate among rookies with at least 100 pass-rush snaps. Tuipulotu also leads all rookies in tackles for loss against the run with three, and his 21 run tackles are tied for fifth among rookies, according to TruMedia.

tuli did joey's celebration 🥹

📺: @espn pic.twitter.com/drJXe2x8Q0

— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) November 7, 2023

This is more of a projection, as Tuipilotu’s best football this season is likely still in front of him. Cornerbacks and edge rushers typically win this award. Only one non-cornerback or edge rusher has won the award since 2015: the Indianapolis Colts’ Shaquille Leonard in 2018. Tuipulotu is fifth in BetMGM’s DROY odds, trailing Carter, Seattle Seahawks corner Devon Witherspoon, Lions safety Brian Branch and Houston Texans edge rusher Will Anderson. He should move up that board in the coming weeks.

The Chargers have found a rhythm with their pass-rush packages, getting Tuipulotu, Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack on the field at the same time. Tuipulotu is the chess piece in those packages. He moves all over the front. Against the Jets, he even rushed standing up against the center. If that trio stays healthy, the numbers should come for Tuipulotu.

2. Johnston will have his breakout game

Quentin Johnston moved decisively into the WR2 role for the Chargers on Monday night after Joshua Palmer was placed on injured reserve with a knee injury. Palmer is not eligible to return until Week 13. Mike Williams is out for the season with a torn ACL. So Johnston will remain in that WR2 role for the foreseeable future. He played a career-high 83 percent of the offensive snaps against the Jets.

Johnston finished with only two catches on three targets, but I am not putting much stock in the performance considering how good the Jets’ pass defense is. He was matched up on the outside often with Sauce Gardner, one of the best corners in the league. There will be opportunities for Johnston to produce in the coming weeks against worse pass defenses like those of the Packers and New England Patriots.

Johnston was drafted for his explosiveness, and though the Chargers have seen some flashes — particularly in a win over the Chicago Bears — the first-round pick has not yet delivered that home run play. We’ll likely see that flash before the end of the season. A 65-yard slant catch-and-run touchdown sounds about right.

3. Bosa and Mack will finish with at least a dozen sacks

Bosa and Mack are finally healthy, and the partnership is starting to materialize. Mack has nine sacks on the year, bolstered by a six-sack performance in Week 4 against the Las Vegas Raiders. Bosa is up to 6 1/2 sacks after a dominant showing against the Jets. Bosa has reached 12 sacks only once in his career, in 2017, his second NFL season. Mack has done it twice, most recently in 2018.

The emergence of Tuipulotu makes this feel attainable, both because of those three-edge-rusher packages and because the depth allows for all the rushers to remain fresh. If Bosa and Mack each reach 12 sacks, they would enter into relatively rare company. The last time two players from the same team had 12 sacks apiece was in 2019 when Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith did it with the Packers. It has happened four times since 2014.

4. Allen will take back his Chargers single-season receptions record

Keenan Allen surpassed 10,000 career receiving yards in the Chargers’ win over the Jets. At 31 years old, the 11-year veteran has not slowed down. He is playing some of the best football of his career, posting 62 catches for 720 yards through eight games. He is on pace for 131 receptions. And his target share will remain steady — and, if anything, increase — amid the receiver injuries.

Allen set the Chargers’ single-season receptions record in 2021 with 106 catches, breaking his own record of 104. Austin Ekeler overtook him last year with 107 catches. But Allen is well on his way to regaining his place atop that list, all while setting a new personal record.

R U SERIOUS KEENAN?

📺: @espn pic.twitter.com/nSmXEEfIEf

— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) November 7, 2023

5. Kelley will lead the Chargers in rushing

Joshua Kelley is already leading the Chargers in rushing with 323 yards, so this is not the boldest of predictions. Some of that is related to Ekeler’s high ankle sprain that kept him out of three games earlier this season. Ekeler has 265 rushing yards on 72 carries on the season. Kelley has 74 carries. Ekeler is averaging 3.6 yards per carry. Kelley is averaging 4.4.

The Chargers are struggling to run the ball this season. They need to give Kelley more touches in the ground attack. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has said he prefers a two-back committee in the running game. Ekeler has said he wants a No. 2 back to help shoulder the workload.

And yet over the past two weeks, Ekeler has been used like a workhorse back. He had 15 carries against the Bears in Week 8. Kelley had six. Ekeler had 14 carries against the Jets. Kelley had just three.

Kelley is a more physical and decisive runner between the tackles, and increasing his workload could be an answer to the Chargers’ running-game woes. If that balance comes to fruition, Kelley would have a clear path to being the Chargers’ leading rusher. Ekeler is impacting the game more as a pass catcher. He has 200 receiving yards on 18 catches, an average of 11.1 yards per reception.

(Photo of Quentin Johnston: Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)

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